📈 SigmaTrader Blog

  Was There a Hint About a Tariff Pause for China Before the Sudden U-Turn? The first week of April unfolded like a geopolitical thriller, with markets reacting wildly to conflicting messages from Washington and Beijing. But amid the chaos, was there a subtle signal—a hint—about a potential tariff pause before the dramatic escalation? Let’s recap the whirlwind: April 2 : The U.S. imposes a 34% tariff on China, sparking global headlines. April 4 : China retaliates with its own 34% tariff on U.S. goods. April 7 (Early Hours) : News breaks of a 90-day pause on tariffs. Markets soar on the hope of de-escalation. Minutes Later : The White House denies the report, calling it fake news . Later on April 7 : President Trump gives China one day to roll back its retaliatory tariffs. April 8 : With no response from China, the White House slaps an additional 50% tariff , raising the total to 84% . April 9 : China retaliates with an additional 50% , matching the 84% t...

🧩 Why Do the Tariffs End with “4”? As all we know the United States has implemented 34 % tariff on Chinese imports and in response, China has imposed its own tariffs on U.S. goods, including a 34 % tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 10, 2025. ​ And today White House says 104% additional tariffs on China took effect at noon. Collection starts tomorrow. And more interestingly why these tariff numbers end with magical "4"? 🎯 1. Numerical Symbolism in Chinese Culture In Chinese culture, the number 4 (四, "sì") is considered unlucky because it sounds very similar to the word for "death" (死, "sǐ") . So when tariffs end in 4% , it could be seen as a subtle jab or psychological tactic—especially if done by U.S. policymakers to signal economic "punishment" or a hardline stance. 🧠 2. Calculated Messaging Governments often use non-verbal cues in trade wars: Numbers Timing (e.g., applying tariffs on national holidays) Produ...

Throughout history, a fascinating pattern has emerged in U.S. presidential elections and market cycles: Republicans tend to get elected near the peak of a business cycle, and recessions often occur while they are in office. Is this merely coincidence, or is there a deeper psychological and economic phenomenon at play? Why Republicans Often Get Elected Near Market Peaks One possible explanation lies in human psychology and confidence cycles. When the economy is booming and stock markets are near all-time highs, people tend to feel optimistic, self-reliant, and confident in their ability to succeed. This mindset often aligns with Republican policies emphasizing free markets, tax cuts, and deregulation—making voters more likely to elect a Republican president during these times. On the other hand, when the economy is struggling or in recession, voters tend to seek security and government intervention, favoring Democratic policies that promise social safety nets and economic stimulus. Look...

Celanese Corp (NYSE: CE ) is a global chemical and specialty materials company that plays a crucial role in various industries, including automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. The company is known for its high-performance engineered materials and acetate tow, among other products. With a strong presence in the S&P 500 index, Celanese benefits from institutional investment via ETFs. However, its recent stock performance has caught the attention of investors, particularly after a sharp post-earnings sell-off. Business Overview and Products Celanese is a leader in the production of engineered polymers, acetyl intermediates, and food ingredients. Some of its key product lines include: Engineered Materials: Used in automotive, medical, and industrial applications. Acetyl Chain: Provides chemicals used in paints, coatings, adhesives, and pharmaceuticals. Food Ingredients: Produces sweeteners and preservatives used in consumer food products. Investment Case: Valuat...

Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE: HOG ) is a legendary American motorcycle manufacturer known for its premium cruiser and touring bikes. With a strong brand and a loyal customer base, Harley-Davidson has been a staple in the motorcycle industry for over a century. Products and Business Overview Harley-Davidson primarily designs and sells heavyweight motorcycles, parts, accessories, and general merchandise. The company also offers financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance. While it faces competition from brands like Honda, Yamaha, and BMW, Harley-Davidson remains a symbol of freedom and power on the road. Technical Analysis: Support Level Holding Strong Currently, HOG stock is trading at $26, sitting at a strong support level on the weekly chart. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) are deeply oversold, signaling a potential reversal in the near term. Fundamental Analysis: Undervalued by Over 300% From a valuation perspective, Harley-Davi...

Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( NYSE: $EL ), a global leader in prestige beauty, has recently attracted significant attention from both institutional investors and insiders. With its stock price sitting at a long-term support level and a 3% dividend yield, could this be a compelling opportunity for investors? Estée Lauder: A Premium Beauty Powerhouse Founded in 1946, Estée Lauder has built a reputation for luxury skincare, cosmetics, and fragrances. The company owns an impressive portfolio of brands, including: Estée Lauder – The flagship brand known for skincare and makeup. MAC Cosmetics – A top choice for professional makeup artists. Clinique – A dermatologist-developed skincare brand. La Mer – Ultra-premium skincare with a cult following. Jo Malone London – A leader in luxury fragrances. The Ordinary (via Deciem acquisition) – A disruptor in affordable skincare. These brands help Estée Lauder dominate the high-end beauty market, but competition is fierce. Competitors: The Beauty Battl...

The Coca-Cola Company ($KO), a staple of the stock market and a favorite of dividend investors, has seen a sharp decline of over 15% from its recent highs. Naturally, this raises the question: Is now the time to buy? Market Sentiment and Uncertainty As with any stock, predicting the absolute bottom is impossible. However, Coca-Cola’s recent decline is tied to a significant political development. After the presidential election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his controversial views on vaccines and advocacy for a healthier lifestyle, was announced as President Trump’s pick to head healthcare. This news created uncertainty for investors, leading to a sell-off as the market grappled with the potential implications for the beverage giant. Investors Have Digested the News While the initial reaction to the healthcare appointment hammered the stock price, the market seems to have largely digested this development. Coca-Cola is now trading near a key technical support level on the weekly ch...

Disney’s stock has seen a significant downturn, almost 50% down from its all-time high (ATH). As Disney prepares to release its earnings report in just a few days, many investors are wondering if now is the time to buy. Current Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, Disney’s stock ( $DIS ) shows potential. It’s forming higher lows on the weekly chart—a positive signal for investors who look to trends for signs of future growth. However, the stock is currently constrained within a downsloping channel, with price action hovering between $80 and $105. Should earnings disappoint, major support is likely around the $80 mark. Reasons to Expect a Bounce Significant Price Correction : After such a deep decline, some investors see Disney as oversold and potentially undervalued. Seasonal Upside with XMAS: The holiday season often brings in a strong inflow of capital. Disney, with its parks, streaming services, and branded merchandise, typically benefits from a year-end surge in spendin...

Is First Solar ( $FSLR ) a Good Stock to Buy on the Dip? The recent election news has impacted the stock market in interesting ways, particularly in the energy sector. Following Trump’s election to the White House, oil-related companies saw an immediate rally, while green energy stocks like solar were heavily sold off. This could be due to expectations that Trump’s administration will prioritize oil drilling, boosting revenue projections for oil companies while sidelining green energy initiatives. But there’s an intriguing counterpoint worth considering: Elon Musk. The Elon Musk Factor Elon Musk, a prominent figure in renewable energy, played an influential role during Trump’s campaign. Given Musk’s relationship with the incoming administration, it’s reasonable to expect he’ll have some sway on green energy policies. Trump is known for his reciprocal style—rewarding loyalty and partnership. This dynamic could potentially benefit Tesla, SolarCity, and First Solar as a whole, turning wha...

 LVMH ($MC), the global luxury goods giant, has recently been hit hard, with its stock price taking another beating after its third-quarter results missed expectations. Growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with JP Morgan lowering its target price from 720 EUR to 685 EUR. This has raised the question: Is this a great buying opportunity or just a case of catching a falling knife? Nobody can predict the perfect time to buy, but when a strong business like LVMH is down 35% from its all-time high and sitting around a support level, we see potential value for long-term investors. If the stock price continues to drop, it could present an even better opportunity to accumulate more shares in a high-quality company. For those unfamiliar, LVMH owns 75 luxury brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Kenzo, Bulgari, and even Princess Yachts—brands synonymous with luxury and resilience. From a technical perspective, the 576 EUR level appears to be a solid support as the stock has bounced ...

PVH Corp, the parent company of iconic brands like Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, and Heritage Brands, is currently sitting at a strong support level. For technical analysis enthusiasts, this might be an intriguing opportunity to get in before the stock potentially makes its next move. The Technical Setup: Catching the exact bottom is never easy, but charts can sometimes "speak" to us, showing potential signals if we know how to listen. Currently, PVH is holding a key support level on both the weekly and daily charts. While there’s always the possibility that it could break below this level, this long-standing support suggests that the stock has strong backing here. If it does break to the downside, it may present an even better opportunity to accumulate shares at a lower price. But for now, the strength of the current support level makes this a potentially attractive entry point. The Fundamentals: Looking beyond the charts, PVH also has some appealing fundamentals: P/E Ratio...

Since July, oil prices have been on a steady decline, reaching a major support level. But just because it’s at a key level doesn’t mean it won’t break further to the downside. However, if oil reverses and breaks to the upside, we could see a significant rally—and with it, the potential for inflation to rise. The Recession Fears vs. Economic Optimism On one hand, many people are concerned about the possibility of the U.S. entering a recession, which could drag oil prices even lower. If the economy slows down, demand for oil will drop, likely pushing prices down further. On the other hand, there's 0.5% interest rate cut that could prevent a recession, especially since U.S. GDP has been in good shape based on the latest data. Another positive factor to consider is China’s recent economic stimulus. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s stimulus could boost demand for commodities, potentially dragging the global market, including oil, upward. The stimulus has already influenced...

When it comes to investing, there are no crystal balls. Predicting the future performance of a stock is never easy, and Boeing ( $BA ) is no exception. Over the past few months, the aerospace giant has faced a string of bad news. So, does that mean it’s a sinking ship? Not necessarily. Fundamentals vs. Technicals From a fundamental perspective, Boeing doesn’t look too appealing right now. Key metrics like the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and operating margin suggest that Boeing is not in great financial shape. But stock performance isn't based solely on fundamentals—technical analysis can provide additional insight. Currently, Boeing’s stock is in a wedge pattern, a technical formation that often precedes a significant move in either direction. This means that while the stock could break below current levels, it could also break above, potentially triggering a big price movement. Too Big to Fail? If you believe that Boeing is "too big to fail," it might mak...

In recent days, commodities have started making clean breakouts, with precious metals like gold leading the charge.  Gold has been flirting with its all-time high, and just yesterday, it broke past a significant resistance level. Now, with nothing but "blue sky" ahead, the yellow metal looks poised for further gains as it enters uncharted territory. If you missed out on the gold setup, don't worry—we’ve been highlighting these opportunities . But gold isn't the only commodity breaking out. Palladium , another major player in the precious metals market, has also made a significant move. After breaking out, Palladium experienced a retest of its levels and is now soaring. Historically one of the more beaten-down commodities, Palladium has the potential for substantial gains if it continues its current bullish trajectory. And for those who feel they’ve missed both the gold and Palladium setups, there’s still Silver . Currently sitting at a key resistance level, silver co...

Investors are constantly searching for opportunities that offer a balance of risk and reward. One stock that has caught the eye of many is Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. ( $ARCO ), the company responsible for operating and franchising McDonald’s restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean. With the stock currently sitting on a crucial weekly technical support level, now could be a significant moment to evaluate its potential. Why Consider ARCO? 1. Attractive Valuation Arcos Dorados Holdings is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11, with a forward-looking P/E of 9.97. This relatively low valuation suggests that the stock may be undervalued, especially considering the company’s strong market position and brand power. A P/E ratio below 15 is often a sign of a potentially undervalued stock, making ARCO appealing for value investors. 2. Dividend Yield In addition to its attractive valuation, ARCO offers a dividend yield of 2.33%. While this isn’t the highest yield availabl...

💛 Is the sky limit for Gold ?  As the market falls, gold is climbing higher. It is nearing a major resistance level that it has tried to break three times before. This will be the fourth attempt, and usually, this increases the probability of a breakout. If it breaks, the sky is the limit for yellow metal. 

 Is Marriott International ( $MAR ) at a Buy Level? After the earnings report, the stock fell sharply but it is currently bouncing back from a gap close and support level. There is also a weekly support level around 200, where the stock might fall during the coming week. Is it a buy level? Based on technical analysis, it is a good level. Additionally, the RSI indicates the stock is in oversold territory. Fundamentally, we can all agree that the company is quite strong and well-known. Its P/E ratio is 21, which is also reasonable. Dividend yield 1.02% as of today. Can the company fall further? Of course, nobody knows, and there is a fear of a recession in the US, which could trigger a further downside move. This is not financial advice; however, we are buying at this level and will add more if it drops to 200, and eventually around 178 if it reaches that level anytime soon. Result: +6.8% in money as of 27.10.2024

As you can see in the screenshots below, the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) sold off by more than 10%, and the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) sold off by more than 5%. Is this the start of a bear market or just a correction? First, let's discuss how this all began on July 11th. What triggered this sell-off? On July 11th, economic data was released, including a negative CPI report. This may have led smart money to decide it was the top, anticipating rate cuts that the Fed was late to implement. This caused a significant sell-off on July 11th, followed by a brief pullback and another sell-off, as observed in the screenshots. Then, on July 24th, another significant economic event occurred: the PMI came in under 50, which is a major warning sign. We all know that when the Fed keeps rates high for longer than needed, a recession often follows. Even if they start to lower rates, it may not help immediately. You can check all these charts  here The next big hit was due to the Initial Jobless Claims, which...