📈 SigmaTrader Blog

  Was There a Hint About a Tariff Pause for China Before the Sudden U-Turn? The first week of April unfolded like a geopolitical thriller, with markets reacting wildly to conflicting messages from Washington and Beijing. But amid the chaos, was there a subtle signal—a hint—about a potential tariff pause before the dramatic escalation? Let’s recap the whirlwind: April 2 : The U.S. imposes a 34% tariff on China, sparking global headlines. April 4 : China retaliates with its own 34% tariff on U.S. goods. April 7 (Early Hours) : News breaks of a 90-day pause on tariffs. Markets soar on the hope of de-escalation. Minutes Later : The White House denies the report, calling it fake news . Later on April 7 : President Trump gives China one day to roll back its retaliatory tariffs. April 8 : With no response from China, the White House slaps an additional 50% tariff , raising the total to 84% . April 9 : China retaliates with an additional 50% , matching the 84% t...

🧩 Why Do the Tariffs End with “4”? As all we know the United States has implemented 34 % tariff on Chinese imports and in response, China has imposed its own tariffs on U.S. goods, including a 34 % tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 10, 2025. ​ And today White House says 104% additional tariffs on China took effect at noon. Collection starts tomorrow. And more interestingly why these tariff numbers end with magical "4"? 🎯 1. Numerical Symbolism in Chinese Culture In Chinese culture, the number 4 (四, "sì") is considered unlucky because it sounds very similar to the word for "death" (死, "sǐ") . So when tariffs end in 4% , it could be seen as a subtle jab or psychological tactic—especially if done by U.S. policymakers to signal economic "punishment" or a hardline stance. 🧠 2. Calculated Messaging Governments often use non-verbal cues in trade wars: Numbers Timing (e.g., applying tariffs on national holidays) Produ...

Since July, oil prices have been on a steady decline, reaching a major support level. But just because it’s at a key level doesn’t mean it won’t break further to the downside. However, if oil reverses and breaks to the upside, we could see a significant rally—and with it, the potential for inflation to rise. The Recession Fears vs. Economic Optimism On one hand, many people are concerned about the possibility of the U.S. entering a recession, which could drag oil prices even lower. If the economy slows down, demand for oil will drop, likely pushing prices down further. On the other hand, there's 0.5% interest rate cut that could prevent a recession, especially since U.S. GDP has been in good shape based on the latest data. Another positive factor to consider is China’s recent economic stimulus. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s stimulus could boost demand for commodities, potentially dragging the global market, including oil, upward. The stimulus has already influenced...

The $ FXI - China Large-Cap ETF is on the verge of an important technical breakout after forming a wedge pattern that has lasted for over four months. But the big question remains: Will the breakout happen to the upside or the downside? While no one can predict market moves with absolute certainty, the current state of China's market and economy over the last few years provides a hint. Given recent trends, it seems that the risk-to-reward ratio favors an upward breakout. If the price surges upward, the potential gains could be significant. Look China Index below, more than -55% dropped lastly: On the other hand, if the ETF breaks downward, the downside risk appears limited, with a low likelihood of substantial losses. It’s important to remember that this analysis is based on our personal strategy and investments over the last few days. While we expect the wedge pattern to resolve soon, this is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial professi...

Chinese ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) are seeing a strong upward movement in premarket trading today, capturing the attention of investors. This positive momentum is largely driven by significant developments surrounding two major Chinese companies: Alibaba and Bilibili . Alibaba’s Strategic Shift: Opening Doors to Mainland Investors Alibaba is making headlines with its latest strategic move to change its listing status on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to a report from the South China Morning Post, this adjustment will make Alibaba's shares eligible for trading by the 220 million investors in mainland China through the Stock Connect program. The move is still pending approval, but if it goes through, it is expected to significantly boost Alibaba’s trading volume and liquidity. This would be a major step in fulfilling a long-standing goal of allowing domestic Chinese investors to share in the capital gains of one of the country’s most prominent tech giants. The imp...

The Chinese stock market has been navigating rough waters lately, with many investors wary of diving in. However, a recent wave of insider buying at Yum China Holdings Inc. ( $YUMC ) has caught the attention of market watchers. Key insiders, including Director Aiken Robert Blaine, General Manager of KFC Wang Warton, and Chief Executive Officer Wat Joey, have all begun to accumulate shares this month.(Check it here ) This activity is particularly noteworthy as insider buying is often interpreted as a strong signal that those closest to the company believe in its future potential. As the saying goes, insiders might sell stock for a variety of reasons, but they buy only for one: they believe the stock will appreciate in value. Is Yum China Holdings a Good Buy? For investors, the big question is whether $YUMC  is a stock worth considering. On the surface, several factors suggest it might be a solid addition to a portfolio: Dividend Yield : Yum China offers a dividend yield of 1.68%, pr...