Is LVMH a Buy After the Recent Dip or Just Catching a Falling Knife?

LVMH ($MC), the global luxury goods giant, has recently been hit hard, with its stock price taking another beating after its third-quarter results missed expectations. Growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with JP Morgan lowering its target price from 720 EUR to 685 EUR. This has raised the question: Is this a great buying opportunity or just a case of catching a falling knife?

Nobody can predict the perfect time to buy, but when a strong business like LVMH is down 35% from its all-time high and sitting around a support level, we see potential value for long-term investors. If the stock price continues to drop, it could present an even better opportunity to accumulate more shares in a high-quality company. For those unfamiliar, LVMH owns 75 luxury brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Kenzo, Bulgari, and even Princess Yachts—brands synonymous with luxury and resilience.

From a technical perspective, the 576 EUR level appears to be a solid support as the stock has bounced from that point before. If it breaks below this level, the next key support is around 517 EUR, and in a more bearish scenario, the price could drop as low as 415 EUR. However, long-term investors may see such declines as an opportunity to add more shares to their portfolios, especially with the company offering a 2% dividend yield. The ex-dividend date is December 2, so there’s still time to consider whether to buy before that cutoff.

Important Note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. However, based on the current levels and the fundamentals of LVMH, we are buyers at these levels and ready to add more if prices dip further.

Comments

Invert, Always Invert: Charlie Munger’s Secret Weapon

One of Charlie Munger’s favorite tricks for solving problems wasn’t something flashy or complicated. It was simple, almost childlike. He called it: “Invert, always invert.” But the story behind it goes back much further than Omaha boardrooms or Berkshire Hathaway meetings. From a Mathematician to an Investor In the 19th century, German mathematician Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi often faced impossible problems. Instead of trying to wrestle them head-on, he flipped them around. If proving something directly was too hard, he asked himself: “What would make the opposite true?” Munger stumbled across this idea and immediately saw how powerful it was. If it worked in mathematics, why not in business, investing, or even life? He often quipped: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.” It sounds funny, but behind the humor is the essence of inversion: if you want to succeed, start by avoiding failure. A Dinner Conversation Imagine you’re at dinner with Charlie Mung...

🌾 Why Billionaires Are Buying Farmland — The Real Reasons Behind the Land Rush

🏞 Why Billionaires Are Quietly Buying Farmland and Vast Tracts of Land In recent years, some of the world’s richest people — including Bill Gates , Jeff Bezos , and Mark Zuckerberg — have quietly become major landowners. From farmland in the U.S. Midwest to tropical ranches in Hawaii, they are accumulating land faster than ever. But what’s driving this modern-day land rush? 🌾 1. A Hedge Against Inflation Farmland is one of the oldest and safest tangible assets . It generates real income through crops and leases while preserving value when inflation rises. As food prices climb, farmland values follow — making it a powerful inflation hedge for billionaires whose wealth is tied up in volatile tech stocks. 🌍 2. Control Over Food and Resources Land means control of food production, water rights, and renewable energy potential . Bill Gates’s 270,000-acre farmland portfolio — the largest in America — reflects a push toward sustainable food systems and climate-friendly agr...

🐋 MicroStrategy vs. LTCM: Could a Fat-Tail Event Trigger a Forced Liquidation?

MicroStrategy (MSTR) has become one of the most leveraged macro bets of our generation. Not through derivatives like LTCM in 1998, but through a simple conviction: “Bitcoin is the ultimate asset, and MicroStrategy will buy as much as possible.” ⚡️ Today, MSTR owns more than 650,000 BTC , but its real cost basis is now around $74k–$75k after continuous purchases funded by stock issuance and convertible debt. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is correcting 📉, and MSTR is down more than 60% with no clear bottom . This raises a powerful question: Is there a scenario where MSTR gets pushed into a liquidation — similar to how LTCM was forced to unwind during a fat-tail event? Let’s break it down. 👇 ⚖️ LTCM vs. MSTR: Two Completely Different Leverage Profiles 📉 LTCM (1998) 25x–50x leverage on tiny spreads Relied on “stable” historical correlations 🧮 Daily margin calls When spreads blew out, they needed collateral immediately Forced fire-sale liquidation within hours ...

📈 SigmaTrader Blog

Search This Blog