📈 SigmaTrader Blog

In the high-stakes world of Wall Street, few stories are as dramatic—and educational—as the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) . When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein is not just a finance book—it’s a powerful warning about arrogance, risk, and the illusion of control. Let’s break down what happened, who was involved, and what every investor can learn. 📚 Summary of "When Genius Failed" When Genius Failed chronicles the rise and catastrophic fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) , a hedge fund that dazzled Wall Street in the 1990s. LTCM was founded by some of the most brilliant financial minds: John Meriwether – Former vice chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers, known for pioneering arbitrage trading. Myron Scholes – Nobel Prize-winning economist, co-creator of the Black-Scholes option pricing model. Robert C. Merton – Nobel Prize-winning economist, specialized in risk and financial derivatives. Other partners included t...

Ferrari ( $RACE ), the legendary Italian automaker, has announced price increases on select models in response to the possibility of a 25% tariff on imported vehicles under President Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies. While some automakers might struggle to pass increased costs to customers, Ferrari’s ability to do so with minimal resistance is a testament to its formidable competitive moat. The Price Hike and Its Impact Starting April 1, Ferrari ( $RACE ) will raise prices by up to 10% on some models, potentially adding around $50,000 to the cost of a typical Ferrari. Unlike mass-market carmakers that rely on competitive pricing to maintain demand, Ferrari is in a unique position where its exclusivity allows it to dictate prices without significant pushback from its affluent customer base. The company’s CEO, Benedetto Vigna, reaffirmed Ferrari's commitment to keeping all production in Maranello, Italy, even as it prepares to launch its first all-electric vehicle next year. A ...

Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) is one of Kazakhstan's leading fintech companies, providing banking, payments, and e-commerce services. The company has positioned itself as a dominant force in Kazakhstan’s financial ecosystem, with a strong business model and impressive financial performance. But with the current stock price at $103, well below the Peter Lynch Fair Value of $193, is now the right time to invest? Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers. Kaspi.kz Overview Kaspi.kz operates as a super app, integrating financial services with e-commerce and digital payments. The company’s primary offerings include: Kaspi Bank – A leading retail bank in Kazakhstan. Kaspi Pay – A widely used digital payment system. Kaspi.kz Marketplace – A rapidly growing e-commerce platform. This diversified ecosystem creates a competitive moat, allowing Kaspi.kz to maintain high profitability and strong customer engagement. Fundamentals and Valuation Current Price: $103 Target Price: $125 (21% upside potential) P...

Throughout history, a fascinating pattern has emerged in U.S. presidential elections and market cycles: Republicans tend to get elected near the peak of a business cycle, and recessions often occur while they are in office. Is this merely coincidence, or is there a deeper psychological and economic phenomenon at play? Why Republicans Often Get Elected Near Market Peaks One possible explanation lies in human psychology and confidence cycles. When the economy is booming and stock markets are near all-time highs, people tend to feel optimistic, self-reliant, and confident in their ability to succeed. This mindset often aligns with Republican policies emphasizing free markets, tax cuts, and deregulation—making voters more likely to elect a Republican president during these times. On the other hand, when the economy is struggling or in recession, voters tend to seek security and government intervention, favoring Democratic policies that promise social safety nets and economic stimulus. Look...

Celanese Corp (NYSE: CE ) is a global chemical and specialty materials company that plays a crucial role in various industries, including automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. The company is known for its high-performance engineered materials and acetate tow, among other products. With a strong presence in the S&P 500 index, Celanese benefits from institutional investment via ETFs. However, its recent stock performance has caught the attention of investors, particularly after a sharp post-earnings sell-off. Business Overview and Products Celanese is a leader in the production of engineered polymers, acetyl intermediates, and food ingredients. Some of its key product lines include: Engineered Materials: Used in automotive, medical, and industrial applications. Acetyl Chain: Provides chemicals used in paints, coatings, adhesives, and pharmaceuticals. Food Ingredients: Produces sweeteners and preservatives used in consumer food products. Investment Case: Valuat...

Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE: HOG ) is a legendary American motorcycle manufacturer known for its premium cruiser and touring bikes. With a strong brand and a loyal customer base, Harley-Davidson has been a staple in the motorcycle industry for over a century. Products and Business Overview Harley-Davidson primarily designs and sells heavyweight motorcycles, parts, accessories, and general merchandise. The company also offers financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance. While it faces competition from brands like Honda, Yamaha, and BMW, Harley-Davidson remains a symbol of freedom and power on the road. Technical Analysis: Support Level Holding Strong Currently, HOG stock is trading at $26, sitting at a strong support level on the weekly chart. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) are deeply oversold, signaling a potential reversal in the near term. Fundamental Analysis: Undervalued by Over 300% From a valuation perspective, Harley-Davi...

 Is the Stock Market Topping? A Look at Market Leaders and Risks The stock market is a dynamic beast, constantly shifting under the weight of countless factors. Investors and analysts alike attempt to predict when a market top is forming, but the truth is—nobody knows for sure. While traditional indicators such as valuation metrics, economic data, and Federal Reserve policies provide clues, there’s another critical signal to watch: the fall of market leaders. The King’s Fall: NVIDIA’s Recent Struggles In every bull market, certain stocks emerge as clear leaders, driving much of the overall gains. NVIDIA ( $NVDA ) has been one of the undisputed champions of the current rally, riding the AI and semiconductor boom to unprecedented heights. However, recent developments suggest that the crown may be slipping. One notable factor? DeepSeek. As competition intensifies and new players enter the space, market sentiment toward industry leaders can shift quickly. Could this signal a larger tre...

The Coca-Cola Company ($KO), a staple of the stock market and a favorite of dividend investors, has seen a sharp decline of over 15% from its recent highs. Naturally, this raises the question: Is now the time to buy? Market Sentiment and Uncertainty As with any stock, predicting the absolute bottom is impossible. However, Coca-Cola’s recent decline is tied to a significant political development. After the presidential election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his controversial views on vaccines and advocacy for a healthier lifestyle, was announced as President Trump’s pick to head healthcare. This news created uncertainty for investors, leading to a sell-off as the market grappled with the potential implications for the beverage giant. Investors Have Digested the News While the initial reaction to the healthcare appointment hammered the stock price, the market seems to have largely digested this development. Coca-Cola is now trading near a key technical support level on the weekly ch...

Disney’s stock has seen a significant downturn, almost 50% down from its all-time high (ATH). As Disney prepares to release its earnings report in just a few days, many investors are wondering if now is the time to buy. Current Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, Disney’s stock ( $DIS ) shows potential. It’s forming higher lows on the weekly chart—a positive signal for investors who look to trends for signs of future growth. However, the stock is currently constrained within a downsloping channel, with price action hovering between $80 and $105. Should earnings disappoint, major support is likely around the $80 mark. Reasons to Expect a Bounce Significant Price Correction : After such a deep decline, some investors see Disney as oversold and potentially undervalued. Seasonal Upside with XMAS: The holiday season often brings in a strong inflow of capital. Disney, with its parks, streaming services, and branded merchandise, typically benefits from a year-end surge in spendin...

RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. ( $RICK ) has caught the eye of many investors recently, but is it a smart buy? Let’s break down the fundamentals, technicals, and potential growth opportunities to help you decide. What is RCI Hospitality Holdings? For those unfamiliar, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. is in the business of live adult entertainment and themed dining experiences. The company operates through two main segments: Nightclubs (adult entertainment venues) and Bombshells (a chain of military-themed restaurants and bars). This unique combination makes RCI an unusual, yet intriguing, company for potential investors. Why Consider RCI Stock Now? RCI’s stock has recently shown signs of recovery after a significant downtrend. Technically, the stock has just broken out of its downward trend on high volume, suggesting renewed buying interest. It’s now pulling back with low volume, which could indicate a strong support level. This could be a promising entry point for buyers, and some invest...

Is First Solar ( $FSLR ) a Good Stock to Buy on the Dip? The recent election news has impacted the stock market in interesting ways, particularly in the energy sector. Following Trump’s election to the White House, oil-related companies saw an immediate rally, while green energy stocks like solar were heavily sold off. This could be due to expectations that Trump’s administration will prioritize oil drilling, boosting revenue projections for oil companies while sidelining green energy initiatives. But there’s an intriguing counterpoint worth considering: Elon Musk. The Elon Musk Factor Elon Musk, a prominent figure in renewable energy, played an influential role during Trump’s campaign. Given Musk’s relationship with the incoming administration, it’s reasonable to expect he’ll have some sway on green energy policies. Trump is known for his reciprocal style—rewarding loyalty and partnership. This dynamic could potentially benefit Tesla, SolarCity, and First Solar as a whole, turning wha...

 LVMH ($MC), the global luxury goods giant, has recently been hit hard, with its stock price taking another beating after its third-quarter results missed expectations. Growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with JP Morgan lowering its target price from 720 EUR to 685 EUR. This has raised the question: Is this a great buying opportunity or just a case of catching a falling knife? Nobody can predict the perfect time to buy, but when a strong business like LVMH is down 35% from its all-time high and sitting around a support level, we see potential value for long-term investors. If the stock price continues to drop, it could present an even better opportunity to accumulate more shares in a high-quality company. For those unfamiliar, LVMH owns 75 luxury brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Kenzo, Bulgari, and even Princess Yachts—brands synonymous with luxury and resilience. From a technical perspective, the 576 EUR level appears to be a solid support as the stock has bounced ...

PVH Corp, the parent company of iconic brands like Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, and Heritage Brands, is currently sitting at a strong support level. For technical analysis enthusiasts, this might be an intriguing opportunity to get in before the stock potentially makes its next move. The Technical Setup: Catching the exact bottom is never easy, but charts can sometimes "speak" to us, showing potential signals if we know how to listen. Currently, PVH is holding a key support level on both the weekly and daily charts. While there’s always the possibility that it could break below this level, this long-standing support suggests that the stock has strong backing here. If it does break to the downside, it may present an even better opportunity to accumulate shares at a lower price. But for now, the strength of the current support level makes this a potentially attractive entry point. The Fundamentals: Looking beyond the charts, PVH also has some appealing fundamentals: P/E Ratio...

Toyota ( $TM ) is currently at a technical support level after breaking a long-term downtrend and returning to retest that breakout.  For those familiar with market patterns, this is often referred to as the "return to the scene of the crime," a moment when the stock revisits a key level before deciding its next move. Key Metrics: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 7.22, with a forward P/E of 7.74. These numbers suggest that the stock is relatively cheap compared to its earnings. You can check details here Price-to-Earnings Growth (PEG) Ratio: The PEG ratio is at 0.43, an extremely promising figure. A PEG below 1 often indicates that a stock may be undervalued considering its growth prospects. Dividend Yield: Toyota is paying a 2.73% dividend yield, making it attractive to income-focused investors in addition to those seeking capital appreciation. Price Target: With an analyst price target of $234, there’s an upside of more than 2...

When it comes to investing, there are no crystal balls. Predicting the future performance of a stock is never easy, and Boeing ( $BA ) is no exception. Over the past few months, the aerospace giant has faced a string of bad news. So, does that mean it’s a sinking ship? Not necessarily. Fundamentals vs. Technicals From a fundamental perspective, Boeing doesn’t look too appealing right now. Key metrics like the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and operating margin suggest that Boeing is not in great financial shape. But stock performance isn't based solely on fundamentals—technical analysis can provide additional insight. Currently, Boeing’s stock is in a wedge pattern, a technical formation that often precedes a significant move in either direction. This means that while the stock could break below current levels, it could also break above, potentially triggering a big price movement. Too Big to Fail? If you believe that Boeing is "too big to fail," it might mak...

The $ FXI - China Large-Cap ETF is on the verge of an important technical breakout after forming a wedge pattern that has lasted for over four months. But the big question remains: Will the breakout happen to the upside or the downside? While no one can predict market moves with absolute certainty, the current state of China's market and economy over the last few years provides a hint. Given recent trends, it seems that the risk-to-reward ratio favors an upward breakout. If the price surges upward, the potential gains could be significant. Look China Index below, more than -55% dropped lastly: On the other hand, if the ETF breaks downward, the downside risk appears limited, with a low likelihood of substantial losses. It’s important to remember that this analysis is based on our personal strategy and investments over the last few days. While we expect the wedge pattern to resolve soon, this is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial professi...

If you're on the lookout for an international stock that offers a solid combination of growth potential, high operating margins, and relatively low institutional ownership, Kaspi.kz JSC ADR ($KSPI) might be worth your attention. As an emerging name outside the U.S., Kaspi.kz is a Kazakhstan-based company that has been making waves with its strong financial metrics and attractive valuation. Who is Kaspi.kz JSC? Kaspi.kz is a diversified tech-driven company, primarily offering services through its mobile app. It operates in three major segments: Payments Platform – Facilitating financial transactions through digital services. Marketplace Platform – Providing a platform for online shopping and e-commerce. Fintech Platform – Offering financial solutions, such as loans and investments. Strong Financial Performance What sets Kaspi.kz apart from many other international stocks is its impressive financial performance. Here are some key highlights: Dividend Yield: Kaspi.kz pays a dividend...

Investors are constantly searching for opportunities that offer a balance of risk and reward. One stock that has caught the eye of many is Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. ( $ARCO ), the company responsible for operating and franchising McDonald’s restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean. With the stock currently sitting on a crucial weekly technical support level, now could be a significant moment to evaluate its potential. Why Consider ARCO? 1. Attractive Valuation Arcos Dorados Holdings is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11, with a forward-looking P/E of 9.97. This relatively low valuation suggests that the stock may be undervalued, especially considering the company’s strong market position and brand power. A P/E ratio below 15 is often a sign of a potentially undervalued stock, making ARCO appealing for value investors. 2. Dividend Yield In addition to its attractive valuation, ARCO offers a dividend yield of 2.33%. While this isn’t the highest yield availabl...

Chinese ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) are seeing a strong upward movement in premarket trading today, capturing the attention of investors. This positive momentum is largely driven by significant developments surrounding two major Chinese companies: Alibaba and Bilibili . Alibaba’s Strategic Shift: Opening Doors to Mainland Investors Alibaba is making headlines with its latest strategic move to change its listing status on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to a report from the South China Morning Post, this adjustment will make Alibaba's shares eligible for trading by the 220 million investors in mainland China through the Stock Connect program. The move is still pending approval, but if it goes through, it is expected to significantly boost Alibaba’s trading volume and liquidity. This would be a major step in fulfilling a long-standing goal of allowing domestic Chinese investors to share in the capital gains of one of the country’s most prominent tech giants. The imp...

The Chinese stock market has been navigating rough waters lately, with many investors wary of diving in. However, a recent wave of insider buying at Yum China Holdings Inc. ( $YUMC ) has caught the attention of market watchers. Key insiders, including Director Aiken Robert Blaine, General Manager of KFC Wang Warton, and Chief Executive Officer Wat Joey, have all begun to accumulate shares this month.(Check it here ) This activity is particularly noteworthy as insider buying is often interpreted as a strong signal that those closest to the company believe in its future potential. As the saying goes, insiders might sell stock for a variety of reasons, but they buy only for one: they believe the stock will appreciate in value. Is Yum China Holdings a Good Buy? For investors, the big question is whether $YUMC  is a stock worth considering. On the surface, several factors suggest it might be a solid addition to a portfolio: Dividend Yield : Yum China offers a dividend yield of 1.68%, pr...