Was There a Hint About a Tariff Pause for China Before the Sudden U-Turn

Was There a Hint About a Tariff Pause for China Before the Sudden U-Turn?

The first week of April unfolded like a geopolitical thriller, with markets reacting wildly to conflicting messages from Washington and Beijing. But amid the chaos, was there a subtle signal—a hint—about a potential tariff pause before the dramatic escalation?

Let’s recap the whirlwind:

April 2: The U.S. imposes a 34% tariff on China, sparking global headlines.
April 4: China retaliates with its own 34% tariff on U.S. goods.
April 7 (Early Hours): News breaks of a 90-day pause on tariffs. Markets soar on the hope of de-escalation.
Minutes Later: The White House denies the report, calling it fake news.
Later on April 7: President Trump gives China one day to roll back its retaliatory tariffs.
April 8: With no response from China, the White House slaps an additional 50% tariff, raising the total to 84%.
April 9: China retaliates with an additional 50%, matching the 84% total. (If you wonder why these tariffs end with magical number "4" you can read here)

Then came the surprise twist.

On the same day, the White House released a statement:

"Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately...
Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 countries have reached out to U.S. representatives and have not retaliated against the U.S., I have authorized a 90-day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately."

The market soared again.

So, was the early April 7 report—called fake news at the time—actually a leaked hint at what was coming? Was the dramatic back-and-forth part of a strategic dance or a sign of internal disarray?

Either way, this episode highlights the sheer volatility in modern geopolitics and its immediate impact on markets. For investors, traders, and policymakers alike, staying nimble and informed has never been more crucial.

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