📈 SigmaTrader Blog

 Interest rates have been the backbone of market trends for decades. After nearly 40 years of falling rates , culminating in near-zero levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, we're now seeing a historic reversal. The big question: 🧠 Are we entering a new era of long-term rising interest rates — and what does that mean for investors? 📉 Flashback: The Great Rate Decline (1981–2020) After peaking in 1981 , U.S. interest rates declined for nearly four decades: 1981: 10-Year Treasury yield hit ~15.8%, Fed Funds Rate was over 20%. 2020: 10-Year yield bottomed around 0.5%, with Fed Funds Rate near 0%. This dramatic drop: Fueled tech and growth stocks, Boosted housing markets, Encouraged high leverage across consumers and corporations. But this regime may now be over. 🔁 Reversal: Post-COVID Rate Spike In response to the inflation spike of 2021–2022, the Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in modern history. From 0% in 2021 to over 5.25% in just 18 months. A r...

 📉 Is It Time to Buy US Stocks? Nobody can perfectly time the market—let’s get that out of the way first. But when your favorite asset is hovering near a major technical support , you need to ask yourself a key question: ❓ If it drops, will you regret buying? Or if it flies, will you regret missing out? If you lean toward the second one, it might be time to pull the trigger . But let’s be clear: Never go all in. Never fully exit. Unless the fundamentals change. 🔍 Why Now? Both $QQQ and $SPY are sitting close to their 200-week SMA —a historically strong support zone. (A 10% drop in SPY would bring it down to its 200-week simple moving average (SMA)) Institutions often accumulate at these levels while retail panic sells. You might be thinking, "This time is different." But I’ve heard that exact phrase during: Market all-time highs Bearish breakdowns Sudden sentiment shifts The truth is: sentiment flips fast. Most investors aren't rational. They...

The past week was a whirlwind for the markets. Major indices took a hit, with the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) plunging 10% and the S&P 500 ($SPY) dropping more than 7%. But beneath the surface of this broad sell-off, a different story was unfolding. While tech giants like NVIDIA ($NVDA), Tesla ($ TSLA ), Palantir ($ PLTR ), and Netflix ($ NFLX ) continued to slide, certain sectors and stocks stood their ground and even flourished. Who’s Thriving Amid the Chaos? Surprisingly, some consumer cyclical and communication services stocks saw gains: McDonald’s ($ MCD ) and Yum! Brands ($ YUM ) hit all-time highs. Verizon ($VZ) reached a 52-week peak. Beaten-down names like $TEX, $CE, $LKQ, $ GES , $ARCO, $CELH, $ EL , $NEE, $ FSLR , $ ADBE , and VOD saw strong inflows, closing in the green. This raises an important question: Are we witnessing a recession panic , or is this a strategic sector rotation? Recession Panic or Sector Rotation? If this were a true recession scare, we’d expect investors to f...

Investing for retirement is one of the most important financial decisions you'll make in your life. As you look to the future, it’s essential to create a portfolio that not only grows over time but also weathers various economic conditions. In this post, I’ll share the strategy behind my all-weather investment pie, a carefully crafted portfolio designed for long-term growth, steady income, and peace of mind. The Foundation of the All-Weather Pie At the heart of this investment pie is diversification. We’ve included a balanced mix of stocks from major global sectors and countries, ensuring broad exposure to both developed and emerging markets. This means you’re not overly reliant on any single market or sector, reducing the overall risk in your portfolio. Additionally, a portion of the pie is allocated to gold, a time-tested hedge against inflation and market volatility. Gold’s stability often provides a safety net during economic downturns, making it a valuable component of a dive...

 Over the last few days, as the market attempts to bounce and push higher, the trading volume has been declining, indicating that the price action lacks strong support. Next Friday marks a major options expiration day, which could lead to increased market volatility. Be cautious with your long positions, as heightened volatility may return in the middle or later part of next week.

As you can see in the screenshots below, the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) sold off by more than 10%, and the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) sold off by more than 5%. Is this the start of a bear market or just a correction? First, let's discuss how this all began on July 11th. What triggered this sell-off? On July 11th, economic data was released, including a negative CPI report. This may have led smart money to decide it was the top, anticipating rate cuts that the Fed was late to implement. This caused a significant sell-off on July 11th, followed by a brief pullback and another sell-off, as observed in the screenshots. Then, on July 24th, another significant economic event occurred: the PMI came in under 50, which is a major warning sign. We all know that when the Fed keeps rates high for longer than needed, a recession often follows. Even if they start to lower rates, it may not help immediately. You can check all these charts  here The next big hit was due to the Initial Jobless Claims, which...