📈 SigmaTrader Blog

Are Business Cycles Still Relevant in 2026 — Or Is This Time Different? Every cycle, the same sentence comes back: "This time is different"  People say business cycles are outdated. That macro doesn’t matter anymore. That central banks, AI, geopolitics — everything changed. But did it really? Or are we just at that exact point in the cycle where people always start believing that? Let’s Talk About Where We Are Right Now If you zoom out and ignore the noise, the structure still looks familiar. We’ve seen: Strong equity rally Liquidity-driven expansion Speculation returning Sector rotations becoming more aggressive This doesn’t look like a new paradigm. This looks like a late-stage bull run . The First Signal: Metals Went Crazy Gold, silver, and commodities were the first to move. When Gold and Silver start running aggressively, it usually tells you one thing: Inflation expectations are rising Fear is slowly entering the system Smart money is ...

Throughout history, a fascinating pattern has emerged in U.S. presidential elections and market cycles: Republicans tend to get elected near the peak of a business cycle, and recessions often occur while they are in office. Is this merely coincidence, or is there a deeper psychological and economic phenomenon at play? Why Republicans Often Get Elected Near Market Peaks One possible explanation lies in human psychology and confidence cycles. When the economy is booming and stock markets are near all-time highs, people tend to feel optimistic, self-reliant, and confident in their ability to succeed. This mindset often aligns with Republican policies emphasizing free markets, tax cuts, and deregulation—making voters more likely to elect a Republican president during these times. On the other hand, when the economy is struggling or in recession, voters tend to seek security and government intervention, favoring Democratic policies that promise social safety nets and economic stimulus. Look...