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Market Crash 2025? Why I’m Not Calling the Top — and How I’m Positioned for Any Scenario

Why I’m Not Calling the Market Top — And How I’m Positioned Instead

Every week, someone declares “this is the market top.”
I used to think the same way — until I learned the hard truth:
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

But there’s a truth that’s easy to know intellectually, yet hard to truly understand: You don’t just learn this from books. You need to live it, feel it in your portfolio, and survive it. Only then do you get humble enough to accept the market as it is, without constantly fighting against it.



Why Cash Doesn’t Mean a Crash

Berkshire Hathaway’s huge cash reserves don’t guarantee a market crash is coming.
It’s just smart preparation. Risks are everywhere:

  • Valuation signals — Buffett Indicator, Shiller P/E

  • Debt dynamics — GDP-to-debt ratios climbing

  • Interest rates — After 40–50 years of falling rates (and near-zero during COVID), we might be in a long-term rising environment

  • Risky leverage — For example, Michael Saylor’s strategy of buying Bitcoin with borrowed money could spiral if the price reverses sharply

  • Currency shifts — Japan carry trade unwinding, USD losing global dominance

  • Foreign selling — Japan and China reducing US debt holdings

  • Geopolitical shocks — Always lurking in the background

Any one of these could, in theory, trigger panic overnight. And when the market starts crashing, as Buffett says:

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”


My Positioning: Prepared for Anything

I’m not in the prediction business anymore — I’m in the preparation business. Here’s how I think about it:

  • Gold — A hedge against inflation, or a potential revaluation scenario if the USD needs artificial support.

  • Tech stocks — I still hold them for growth, but I take partial profits at each new all-time high.

  • Out-of-favor sectors — Right now, healthcare looks extremely cheap. That’s where I rotate some capital.

  • Small short positions — Not for everyone, including me. I treat them like playing with fire, fully aware of the risks.

The goal?
Whether we face runaway inflation, a sudden crash, sector rotation, or a reevaluation of sky-high tech valuations in a rising-rate world — I’m positioned to adapt, not panic.


Final Thought

Markets are unpredictable.
History teaches us that betting everything on a single narrative is a dangerous game.
My approach isn’t about knowing the future — it’s about making sure I can handle any future.

We all know that one day these insane valuations — this inflated balloon — will eventually burst. But while the music is playing, we can’t just sit still; we have to dance. The key is making sure that when the music stops, we either have a seat or we’re already out of the room.

It’s like life itself: we know one day we will die, but on all the days before that, we live. We prepare for the inevitable while still enjoying the present. The same applies to the markets — enjoy the dance while the music plays, but be both psychologically and financially ready for when it stops.

I’m not chasing tops or bottoms.
I’m building a portfolio that can survive inflation, crashes, sector rotations, and interest rate shocks.
Because in investing, survival is the real superpower.

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