📈 SigmaTrader Blog

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has been quietly showing strong accumulation on the weekly chart. Indicators like volume and money flow suggest that serious players are positioning themselves ahead of potential market turbulence. But who is behind this? It could be hedge funds, institutional investors, or risk managers hedging their portfolios against uncertainty. What’s clear is that they are preparing for scenarios most retail investors might overlook. Gold is also catching attention. After a period of consolidation, it appears to be on the verge of a breakout, signaling that smart money may be diversifying into another defensive asset. Both TLT and gold have historically served as hedges during times of market stress – whether a recession or a bubble burst. The takeaway? You don’t need to predict the exact timing of the next downturn. Observing accumulation in defensive ETFs like TLT and potential breakouts in gold can give you insights into how professional investors ...

Why I’m Not Calling the Market Top — And How I’m Positioned Instead Every week, someone declares “this is the market top.” I used to think the same way — until I learned the hard truth: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But there’s a truth that’s easy to know intellectually, yet hard to truly understand : You don’t just learn this from books. You need to live it, feel it in your portfolio, and survive it. Only then do you get humble enough to accept the market as it is, without constantly fighting against it. Why Cash Doesn’t Mean a Crash Berkshire Hathaway’s huge cash reserves don’t guarantee a market crash is coming. It’s just smart preparation. Risks are everywhere: Valuation signals — Buffett Indicator, Shiller P/E Debt dynamics — GDP-to-debt ratios climbing Interest rates — After 40–50 years of falling rates (and near-zero during COVID), we might be in a long-term rising environment Risky leverage — For example, Michael Saylor’s str...

Webull ($BULL) IPO: Wild Ride or Smart Long-Term Play? Webull, the commission-free trading platform known for its sleek mobile interface and tech-savvy user base, recently went public under the ticker $BULL . Its IPO was nothing short of a spectacle — launching at $13 , skyrocketing to nearly $78 , then sharply correcting. It has since found a base and is now showing early signs of recovery . 📊 What Does Webull Do? Webull is a digital brokerage offering: Zero-commission stock and ETF trading Crypto trading (via Webull Crypto) Extended-hours trading Advanced charting tools and market data Options and fractional shares Its core appeal is a power-user platform for younger, more technical traders , positioned as a middle ground between Robinhood’s simplicity and TD Ameritrade’s complexity . Webull monetizes through: Payment for order flow (PFOF) Margin interest Securities lending Premium subscriptions for advanced tools 🆚 Who Are the Competitors? ...

 Interest rates have been the backbone of market trends for decades. After nearly 40 years of falling rates , culminating in near-zero levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, we're now seeing a historic reversal. The big question: 🧠 Are we entering a new era of long-term rising interest rates — and what does that mean for investors? 📉 Flashback: The Great Rate Decline (1981–2020) After peaking in 1981 , U.S. interest rates declined for nearly four decades: 1981: 10-Year Treasury yield hit ~15.8%, Fed Funds Rate was over 20%. 2020: 10-Year yield bottomed around 0.5%, with Fed Funds Rate near 0%. This dramatic drop: Fueled tech and growth stocks, Boosted housing markets, Encouraged high leverage across consumers and corporations. But this regime may now be over. 🔁 Reversal: Post-COVID Rate Spike In response to the inflation spike of 2021–2022, the Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in modern history. From 0% in 2021 to over 5.25% in just 18 months. A r...

In the high-stakes world of Wall Street, few stories are as dramatic—and educational—as the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) . When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein is not just a finance book—it’s a powerful warning about arrogance, risk, and the illusion of control. Let’s break down what happened, who was involved, and what every investor can learn. 📚 Summary of "When Genius Failed" When Genius Failed chronicles the rise and catastrophic fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) , a hedge fund that dazzled Wall Street in the 1990s. LTCM was founded by some of the most brilliant financial minds: John Meriwether – Former vice chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers, known for pioneering arbitrage trading. Myron Scholes – Nobel Prize-winning economist, co-creator of the Black-Scholes option pricing model. Robert C. Merton – Nobel Prize-winning economist, specialized in risk and financial derivatives. Other partners included t...

 Jamie Dimon Warns: "You Are Going to Panic" When the Bond Market Cracks $TSLA , $MSTR , and $MSFT are topping, while $NVDA shows a head and shoulders pattern forming. Buckle up and focus on preserving capital—this is not the time for greed. In a high interest rate environment, managing risk matters more than chasing reward. At a recent event hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a stark warning to regulators about the fragility of the U.S. bond market. He emphasized that a significant disruption is imminent and will provoke panic among regulators and investors alike.  Dimon criticized current banking regulations, particularly proposed changes to banks' supplementary leverage ratios, arguing they don't adequately support the $29 trillion Treasury market. He highlighted that these regulations could hinder banks' ability to absorb shocks during periods of market stress. This warning comes in the wake of Apr...

 If you are looking for US Aerospace & Defense Stocks to invest in then let’s compare Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corporation (RTX), General Dynamics (GD), General Electric (GE), and Boeing (BA) from an investment perspective, focusing on: Core business & products Defense exposure Stability & financial health Growth prospects Valuation and dividends 🔹 1. Lockheed Martin ( LMT ) Core Business : Pure-play defense contractor — fighter jets (F-35), missiles, helicopters (Sikorsky), space systems. Defense Exposure : ~96% of revenue comes from the U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments. Stability : Very stable, heavily backed by multi-year government contracts. Growth : Moderate growth; mostly in line with defense budgets. Dividend : Strong dividend (~2.7%), with decades of increases. Valuation : Often seen as fairly valued or slightly undervalued in uncertain times. Risks : Dependent on U.S. defense budget; limited commercial exposure. ✅ Best for cons...