📈 SigmaTrader Blog

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has been quietly showing strong accumulation on the weekly chart. Indicators like volume and money flow suggest that serious players are positioning themselves ahead of potential market turbulence. But who is behind this? It could be hedge funds, institutional investors, or risk managers hedging their portfolios against uncertainty. What’s clear is that they are preparing for scenarios most retail investors might overlook. Gold is also catching attention. After a period of consolidation, it appears to be on the verge of a breakout, signaling that smart money may be diversifying into another defensive asset. Both TLT and gold have historically served as hedges during times of market stress – whether a recession or a bubble burst. The takeaway? You don’t need to predict the exact timing of the next downturn. Observing accumulation in defensive ETFs like TLT and potential breakouts in gold can give you insights into how professional investors ...

Why I’m Not Calling the Market Top — And How I’m Positioned Instead Every week, someone declares “this is the market top.” I used to think the same way — until I learned the hard truth: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But there’s a truth that’s easy to know intellectually, yet hard to truly understand : You don’t just learn this from books. You need to live it, feel it in your portfolio, and survive it. Only then do you get humble enough to accept the market as it is, without constantly fighting against it. Why Cash Doesn’t Mean a Crash Berkshire Hathaway’s huge cash reserves don’t guarantee a market crash is coming. It’s just smart preparation. Risks are everywhere: Valuation signals — Buffett Indicator, Shiller P/E Debt dynamics — GDP-to-debt ratios climbing Interest rates — After 40–50 years of falling rates (and near-zero during COVID), we might be in a long-term rising environment Risky leverage — For example, Michael Saylor’s str...