📈 SigmaTrader Blog

 MicroStrategy (MSTR) has become one of the most leveraged macro bets of our generation. Not through derivatives like LTCM in 1998, but through a simple conviction: “Bitcoin is the ultimate asset, and MicroStrategy will buy as much as possible.” ⚡️ Today, MSTR owns more than 650,000 BTC , but its real cost basis is now around $74k–$75k after continuous purchases funded by stock issuance and convertible debt. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is correcting 📉, and MSTR is down more than 60% with no clear bottom . This raises a powerful question: Is there a scenario where MSTR gets pushed into a liquidation — similar to how LTCM was forced to unwind during a fat-tail event? Let’s break it down. 👇 ⚖️ LTCM vs. MSTR: Two Completely Different Leverage Profiles 📉 LTCM (1998) 25x–50x leverage on tiny spreads Relied on “stable” historical correlations 🧮 Daily margin calls When spreads blew out, they needed collateral immediately Forced fire-sale liquidation within hours ...

Every year, investors talk about the “Santa Rally” — that strange period between Christmas and the first few days of January when the stock market historically moves higher. It sounds almost mythical, but the Santa Rally is real, measurable, and surprisingly consistent . But what actually causes it? It turns out the rally isn’t driven by one magic factor. Instead, it’s a perfect storm of liquidity shifts, investor psychology, tax behavior, and institutional rebalancing — all happening at the same time. Let’s break it down. 🎄 What Is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally refers to the 7-day stretch from December 26 to January 3 , where the S&P 500 has historically produced much stronger returns than any other similar-length period in the year. Average return: ~1.3% in just 7 days Win rate: ~75–80% of years Most reliable seasonal effect in markets So yes — it’s real. But it’s not random. 📌 Update: How the Santa Rally Has Changed in the Post-COVID Market While the tr...