📈 SigmaTrader Blog

 Interest rates have been the backbone of market trends for decades. After nearly 40 years of falling rates , culminating in near-zero levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, we're now seeing a historic reversal. The big question: 🧠 Are we entering a new era of long-term rising interest rates — and what does that mean for investors? 📉 Flashback: The Great Rate Decline (1981–2020) After peaking in 1981 , U.S. interest rates declined for nearly four decades: 1981: 10-Year Treasury yield hit ~15.8%, Fed Funds Rate was over 20%. 2020: 10-Year yield bottomed around 0.5%, with Fed Funds Rate near 0%. This dramatic drop: Fueled tech and growth stocks, Boosted housing markets, Encouraged high leverage across consumers and corporations. But this regime may now be over. 🔁 Reversal: Post-COVID Rate Spike In response to the inflation spike of 2021–2022, the Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in modern history. From 0% in 2021 to over 5.25% in just 18 months. A r...

In the high-stakes world of Wall Street, few stories are as dramatic—and educational—as the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) . When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein is not just a finance book—it’s a powerful warning about arrogance, risk, and the illusion of control. Let’s break down what happened, who was involved, and what every investor can learn. 📚 Summary of "When Genius Failed" When Genius Failed chronicles the rise and catastrophic fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) , a hedge fund that dazzled Wall Street in the 1990s. LTCM was founded by some of the most brilliant financial minds: John Meriwether – Former vice chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers, known for pioneering arbitrage trading. Myron Scholes – Nobel Prize-winning economist, co-creator of the Black-Scholes option pricing model. Robert C. Merton – Nobel Prize-winning economist, specialized in risk and financial derivatives. Other partners included t...

 Jamie Dimon Warns: "You Are Going to Panic" When the Bond Market Cracks $TSLA , $MSTR , and $MSFT are topping, while $NVDA shows a head and shoulders pattern forming. Buckle up and focus on preserving capital—this is not the time for greed. In a high interest rate environment, managing risk matters more than chasing reward. At a recent event hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a stark warning to regulators about the fragility of the U.S. bond market. He emphasized that a significant disruption is imminent and will provoke panic among regulators and investors alike.  Dimon criticized current banking regulations, particularly proposed changes to banks' supplementary leverage ratios, arguing they don't adequately support the $29 trillion Treasury market. He highlighted that these regulations could hinder banks' ability to absorb shocks during periods of market stress. This warning comes in the wake of Apr...